National Planning Scenarios

A DHS document titled 'National Planning Scenarios' has apparently been inadvertently leaked (executive summary available here, but I've not been able to find the full report yet). The document reportedly contains a prioritized list of threats and is intended to guide investment in terror deterrence and mitigation programs. Scenarios developed include blowing up a chlorine tank in a metro area as well as terrorist deployment of a nuclear weapon. This sort of risk management approach makes a lot of sense and is long overdue.

By identifying possible attacks and specifying what government agencies should do to prevent, respond to and recover from them, Homeland Security is trying for the first time to define what "prepared" means, officials said.

The goal of the document's planners was not to identify every type of possible terrorist attack. It does not include an airplane hijacking, for example, because "there are well developed and tested response plans" for such an incident. Planners included the threats they considered the most plausible or devastating, and that represented a range of the calamities that communities might need to prepare for, said Marc Short, a department spokesman. "Each scenario generally reflects suspected terrorist capabilities and known tradecraft," the document says.

The article also quotes Michael Chertoff, the new secretary of homeland security, who makes a lot of sense:

Michael Chertoff, the new secretary of homeland security, has made it clear that this risk-based planning will be a central theme of his tenure, saying that the nation must do a better job of identifying the greatest threats and then move aggressively to deal with them.

"There's risk everywhere; risk is a part of life," Mr. Chertoff said in testimony before the Senate last week. "I think one thing I've tried to be clear in saying is we will not eliminate every risk."

It seems like this might also bring some sanity to the homeland security spending allocation process:

To prioritize spending nationwide, communities or regions will be ranked by population, population density and an inventory of critical infrastructure in the region.

The communities in the first tier, the largest jurisdictions with the highest-value targets, will be expected to prepare more comprehensively than other communities, so they would be eligible for more federal money.

"We can't spend equal amounts of money everywhere," said Mr. Mayer, of the Homeland Security Department.