VenChar

The Channelization of Blogs

User generated content is red hot - you just have to observe the acquisition of Intermix by Fox Interactive for $580 million to believe that.  There was also the earlier data point of About.com acquired by the New York Times for $400 Million so now you have two anachronistic organizations making huge bets on user generated content.  So is this is the peak of Web 2.0 as Matt Marshall thinks . . .

I don't think so.  I believe we are in the early stages of the "user-driven" phenomenon that is going to change media forever.  It is fun to speculate how this space will evolve and here is my take:

a. I think the current "blog aggregation" model perpetuated by folks like Bloglines/Yahoo/Newsgator is not going to scale.  I already have over 200 blogs in my "read" list and that number is only going to increase and currently Bloglines does not give me a good way to manage them

b. Aggregators aggregate blogs but what I really want is postings not blogs.

c. I also want these aggregators to "filter" these postings because I am interested in a few topics and I would rather "see" those postings than all the postings from a certain blog

d. This "filter" can be automated (think rss feeds of Delicious tags) or be done by a human e.g. Nivi's VC's channel

e. There will also need to come up with a better way of filing and storing the posts so that they can be retrieved easily

What do you guys think?  How else should this space evolve?

Detecting nukes in transit: What can the newly-established DNDO do?

Just finished writing a paper with Sri and Tom Tisch - it's titled 'Nuclear Detection: Portals, fixed detectors, and NEST teams won't work on a national scale, so what's next?'. We analyze the *use* of nuclear detectors to help prevent terrorist nuclear attacks, and we conclude that fixed detector approaches (such as those currently being implemented) are unlikely to be that effective. Here's the executive summary of the paper:

Recognizing the need for detecting terrorist attempts to transport or use fissile nuclear materials, President Bush’s FY 2006 budget request includes $246 million to form a Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). [1] “The DNDO will provide a single accountable organization with dedicated responsibilities to develop the global nuclear detection architecture, and acquire, and support the deployment of the domestic detection system…” [2] How can DNDO planners deliver a global nuclear detection architecture that works?

Nuclear detection systems, as architected and deployed today, leave loopholes in the transportation network that terrorists can easily exploit by making use of light road vehicles to private jets to oil tankers [3].  Progress can be made if we face up to three fundamental facts:

1. Terrorists will most likely try to use highly enriched uranium (HEU), not plutonium: assembly of a HEU bomb does not involve technically complex detonation as with a plutonium bomb.

2. Terrorists can circumvent a network of fixed detectors: fixed detectors not only lack sufficient proximity and exposure to the vehicle in transit but also do not screen many types of vehicles.

3. R&D breakthroughs cannot change the physics of detection: passive detection of HEU will always be limited by its natural rate of radioactivity, and the attenuation of radioactivity is very sharp with distance [4]. The gamma rays and neutrons useful for detecting shielded HEU permit detection only at short distances (2-4 feet or less) and require that there is sufficient time to count a sufficient number of particles (several minutes to hours).

Recommendation: Due to fundamental physical limits, the current trend toward a fixed detector infrastructure is a dead-end. The only way shielded HEU can be effectively detected is if commercially-available detector technology, rather than being kept at fixed locations, are directly integrated into vehicles themselves. Detectors would travel with vehicles and have enough time to record radioactivity before reporting their readings to a network of check-points (in the same way E-Z pass collects highway tolls).

Our paper, 'Nuclear Detection: Portals, fixed detectors, and NEST teams won't work on a national scale, so what's next?' explores tradeoffs in detecting HEU in transit, and analyzes its technical, operational, and economic feasibility.

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[1] “R&D in the Department of Homeland Security”, AAAS, http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/06pch12.htm

[2] “Fact Sheet: Domestic Nuclear Detection Office,” http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=4474

[3] Medalia, J., 2005, “Nuclear Terrorism: A Brief Review of Threats and Responses,” CRS Report for Congress, The Library of Congress http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/43399.pdf

[4] attenuation of radioactivity with distance is subject to an inverse-square law in free-space and is exponential with shielding

Radiation detectors on buoys

The Lawrence Livermore National Labs site has an interesting write-up on trials of radiation detectors aboard buoys off the coast. The idea is to detect nuclear materials that might be carried on board boats and other vessels before they get close enough to land to be dangerous. The detectors are powered by wind- and solar-powered generators and are outfitted with wireless communications links.

Homeland security experts are evaluating a wide range of possible threats from terrorists. One of the more troubling scenarios is a small and crude nuclear device transported in and detonated from a boat located near a naval military base or a civilian shipping terminal. Thanks to a Livermore design, buoys outfitted with commercially available radiation detectors could soon play an important role by warning of the presence of nuclear materials in marine environments.

9/11 showed us that we needed to secure civilian transportation modalities (a shift away from the cold-war thinking of building missile shields, etc.). If the trials are successful, these detector systems might be deployed around busy ports to interdict and deter marine transport of nuclear materials and weapons. Apparently, proposals have already been submitted to deploy buoys with radiation detectors in the Oakland harbor.

Curious to see what the specs are on the detector system: how well detection at a distance works, how high the false positive rate is and how closely the buoys need to be spaced in order to be effective. As with any RF system, radiation has a power-law falloff (inverse-square law in this instance) with distance...

Talk radio

Read David Foster Wallace's entertaining dissection of the talk radio industry in the Atlantic on my plane ride back from Atlanta yesterday. Some excerpts:

Whatever the social effects of talk radio or the partisan agendas of certain hosts, it is a fallacy that political talk radio is motivated by ideology. It is not. Political talk radio is a business, and it is motivated by revenue. The conservativeness that dominates today's AM airwaves does so because it generates high Arbitron ratings, high ad rates, and maximum profits.

Radio has become a more lucrative business than most people know. Throughout most of the past decade, the industry's revenues have increased by more than 10% a year. The average cash-flow margin for major radio companies is 40 percent, compared with more like 15 percent for large TV networks; and the mean price paid for a radio station has gone from eight to more than thirteen times cash flow.

Also, here is an interesting story about a rather clever show:

... the Phil Hendrie Show which is actually a cruel and complicated kind of meta-talk radio. What happens every night on this program is that Phil Hendrie brings on some wildly offensive guest - a man who's leaving his wife because she's had a mastectomy, a Little League coach who advocates corporal punishment of players, etc. - and first-time or casual listeners will call in and argue with the guests and (not surprisingly) get very angry and upset. Except the whole thing's a put-on. The guests are fake, their different voices done by Hendrie with the aid of mike-processing and a first-rate board  op, and the show's real entertainment is the callers, who don't know it's all a gag - Hendrie's real auidience, which is in on the joke, enjoys hearing these callers get more and more outraged and sputtery as the "guests" yank their chain.

Later on in the piece, Wallace goes on to speculate that perhaps the callers are also fakes conjured up by Hendrie and his crew, so that the "initiates" are also the butt of the joke. Rather funny.

Also learnt about Arbitron which is something like Nielsen ratings for radio. It is referred to as "Arbitraryon" by insiders because "it is 100 percent diary-based, and diary surveys are notoriously iffy, since a lot of subjects neglect to fill out their diaries in real time (especially when they're listening as they drive), tending instead to wait till the night before they're due and theen trying to do them from memory." Leading, no doubt, to inaccurate ratings numbers that are fed to gullible advertisers.

APIs and innovation

I had written a while back about Skype's API. I found out recently that someone's developed an answering machine application using the API:

SAM is a simple voice answering machine for Skype® users.

When you are away from your PC and there is no one to answer your incoming Skype calls, SAM will pick up the call, play a greeting message and the "all-time clasic beep" so that the calling party will leave a voice recorded message.

It looks a little rough around the edges right now, but I still think it's a great example of how opening up APIs, done well, can fuel user-driven innovation. Apropos of this, also see the recent Google AdWords API announcement:

Google's free AdWords API service lets developers engineer computer programs that interact directly with the AdWords server. With the applications created, advertisers and third parties can more efficiently - and creatively - manage their large AdWords accounts and campaigns.

From the Google Blog:

The AdWords API beta program is an open invitation to developers to explore new concepts (and then write great software) for managing Google AdWords advertising campaigns. Large advertisers can use it for their complex ad management needs, like tying product margins to optimized keyword bids.Third parties can use the API to build new interfaces to manage their client accounts. Best of all, an API enables the creation of all sorts of unanticipated ideas.

Skype API

Skype recently announced a partnership with Siemens to enable cordless phones to use Skype to dial out (in addition to using the PSTN):

Skype's free Internet telephony software works with Siemens phones via the Gigaset M34 USB adapter, an open interface adapter that is plugged into the USB connection point of a users' PC. It communicates with the phone’s base station to either make or receive a Skype call. The handset then enables users to gain cordless access to the extensive Skype features including, free Skype to Skype calling, buddy lists, the Skype Global Directory and conference calling.

Skype has also recently opened up an API enabling hardware devices and software applications to integrate with Skype's software. A couple of interesting applications called out:

Call-center and IVR solutions
Although Skype has so far been designed primarily with individual communication needs in mind, it can be used to provide business-class calling services through the Skype API. Businesses can provide Interactive Voice Response (IVR) solutions where the software answers the inbound Skype call and provides the user with automated choices and selections in combination with a back-end system. This could be used for ticket booking, payment, pizza ordering and many other services. The IVR system can be either fully automatic or a combination of operator/automatic usage.
For service monitoring purposes, the calls to operators can be recorded and later screened using regular audio manipulating tools on a standard PC. The information can be automatically stored and emailed.

Phone handsets
Skype provides access to its functions from software a well as hardware devices. The Skype client software can be used with any audio hardware compatible with the operating system, such as headphones and a desktop microphone, or a dedicated USB headset or even telephone-like handset. However, all of these require the user to still work with Skype software and sit behind a computer.
Users may want more freedom both in home and business environments and not to be tied to a computer. This is why Skype has joined forces with Siemens as its first Preferred Cordless Phone Provider to give users a chance to move about freely. The Siemens M34 Gigaset USB Adapter plugs into the computer’s USB port and connects to a Gigaset base station that in turn is connected to one or more cordless handsets. The handsets have access to basic Skype functions like placing and answering calls and navigating the contact list.
The Skype API gives other hardware manufacturers an opportunity to build similar solutions in their existing or upcoming products. Note that for using all these functions, a computer running Skype is still required.

Sensor networks to deter terrorism

My friend Sri has authored a very interesting paper on the use of sensor networks to deter terrorism. He notes that security checks at airports, in spite of being less than 100% reliable, have resulted in a dramatic decrease in aviation-related terrorist incidents in recent years. He goes on to argue that deploying sensor networks to detect nuclear, biological and chemical threats is now both technologically feasible and economical and that deploying such networks could dramatically reduce terrorist threats using WMD. The arguments he presents are rendered particularly potent in light of the recent Madrid bombings. Here's the abstract:

Abstract: Analysis of the RAND-MIPT terrorism incident database (1968-2003) reveals (1) government authorities have been unable to contain the accelerated rise in fatalities caused by terrorist use of conventional explosives, and (2) even imperfect sensor-based screening (passengers, luggage) instituted by civil aviation authorities has virtually eliminated bombings aboard commercial aircraft over the past decade. Sensors developed by R&D labs enabling remote (non-intrusive) detection of conventional, nuclear, biological, chemical bombs, have not seen widespread deployment outside of airports and some transportation hubs. Delaying the wide deployment and improvement of sensing capability, however imperfect initially, could prove to be a big mistake.

The paper is worth a full read - see here.

Solar-powered wireless-enabled parking stations

Daily Wireless writes about wireless parking stations being rolled out in Montreal to replace traditional parking meters. You would pull in to a parking spot, walk over to the parking station, enter the parking spot identification code and pay with cash or credit. Meter maids would be able to query the parking station using a wireless handheld and determine which (if any) of the spots are illegally parked.

Benefits to the city:
* fewer parking stations required (each parking station replaces 12 parking meters)
* more convenient for the meter maids - they don't even have to get out of their vehicles to check the meters
* stations are solar-powered, so no access to regular power is required
* parking rates can actually be altered from a central location, allowing the city to charge a higher rate during sporting events, concerts, etc.

The parking stations are being developed by 8D Technologies in partnership with Cale Systems. The system runs Linux and uses GPRS for connectivity. Daily Wireless makes the point that when you tally up the access fees for GPRS, this begins to look like a pretty expensive solution. Yet another good application for ubiquitous WiFi coverage.

Quorum sensing

Interesting Sciam article on bacterial communication. Yes, that's right. It turns out that if enough of them are around, they can communicate and coordinate their activities towards some shared goal.

As its moniker suggests, quorum sensing describes the ways in which bacteria determine how many of them there are in the vicinity. If enough are present (a quorum), they can get down to business or up to mischief. For instance, millions of bioluminescent bacteria might decide to emit light simultaneously so that their host, a squid, can glow--perhaps to distract predators and escape. Or salmonella bacteria might wait until their hordes have amassed before releasing a toxin to sicken their host; if the bacteria had acted as independent assassins rather than as an army, the immune system most likely would have wiped them out.

The ability to communicate and coordinate allows the bacteria to be more effective. It also suggests a medical strategy in dealing with infectious bacteria: interfere with the communication channel and you reduce the effectiveness of the bacteria.

It turns out that the bacteria release chemicals that allow neighbors to infer their presence. Now, interestingly, there seems to be a general chemical (Al-2, used across species, to identify other bacteria generally) as well as a species-specific chemical. So bacteria have the ability to distinguish "one of us" from "other". This means they can actually communicate across species!

In addition, the article suggests the intriguing implications of this finding in thinking about the evolution of multicellular organisms - such primitive communication and coordination might have been the precursor of larger scale organization.

Link via the always interesting Language Log.

Gyaru-moji

Seen on Japan.com (via Smart Mobs):

In the GSM world, youths often use an abbreviated language to reduce the time and effort to type an SMS message. Japanese girls, however, now prefer to communicate amongst each other using special characters that require more time to input. These characters are called "gyaru-moji" (gyaru is the slang word for girl). The words made from gyaru-moji are a mixture of Japanese syllables, numbers, mathematical symbols and Greek characters. It's like a secret code used by teenagers; at first glance, the code resembles hieroglyphics.

Typing gyaru-moji takes at least twice as long as inputting standard Japanese. When we asked a Japanese girl in Shibuya about gyaru-moji, she told us that she likes to use them because it makes her emails look more artistic. "Plus," she added, "people who want to read over my shoulder cannot understand gyaru-moji, and in this way we keep our group language." For those people not familiar with gyaru-moji, several mobile and Web sites offer conversion tools from normal written Japanese to gyaru-moji.

Recently a new trend to send personalized messages was introduced by these girls. They do not send emails to friends anymore. Instead, they jot down their message on a piece of paper, take a photo of it and send it as a picture message to their friends.

Neat. One of my frustrations with text-messaging has been how painful it is to type stuff using a phone keypad. I tried out writing a message down on paper, capturing the image and sending it. You can see how well it works (despite the low resolution of my cameraphone) here. Now, it would be nice if textamerica also did OCR on the image and sent out a text email to the intended recipient.